Iowa is only the beginning of a long road.
Hello, again gang! Getting away from wrestling this week and looking at the political season (*ahem*RunningforPresident*ahem*)
So the first Caucus of the 2016 election season has come and gone. Iowa was the focus as for the first time we have something of actual results to look over instead of just unofficial phone polls. Of course, the news media has been treating yesterday’s results like they are life and death and give more coverage to it more than anything.
However important an early sign that yesterday’s results were. This isn’t the be all end all and we can just wrap this up and go to November. We have 49 more states to go gang and we are a long way from deciding anything. There are a lot of major party candidates still left in the race, especially on the republican side, and this process will eventually whittle things down for the party’s conventions this summer.
I’m no political pundit, but I do have a long memory and I realize that the road to the White House can be as bumpy as a trip down the Interstate. Some places are smooth as glass, others are ripped all to hell, and there are going to be accidents along the way.
2008 comes to mind when talking about how much can change between Iowa and the conventions. At the beginning of the season, the networks were predicting the race would come down to Rudy Giuliani and Hilary Clinton. Rudy didn’t last very long thanks to his disastrous decision to skip “minor” states and only focus on the major ones. One crushing defeat later and he was out. Mitt Romney stepped up to be the republican favorite, and won several states, then decided to up and quit out of nowhere and John McCain ended up being the candidate. I have my theories as to what happened in all that, but the point is, things can change very quick.
Of curse, sometimes things other than political caucusing can get in the way. Going back to 1988 when Gary Hart was looking to be a favorite in that’s year’s election season. He had done well in the 1984 primary season and was giving it another shot. One clandestine trip to a young lady’s house later and he is out of the running. We are talking Washington politics, so who knows what these people are up to.
The political process really can be a minefield. One wrong action, one wrong word, even the allegation of a wrong move can end the process for a person in its tracks. All it takes is one “Dukakis in a tank” moment and a candidate is on the losing end of the process.
Looking directly at last night’s results in Iowa, you can hardly call the race a synch for anyone. While Hillary Clinton “won” in the democrat side of things, she squeaked by in a dead heat decided by coin flips in some cases. It doesn’t tell me that Clinton is going to be the democrat candidate in the end, but it does tell me that Sanders is a lot closer to her than he was only a few months ago. Hilary may end up in the same dogfight she was in during the 2008 season.
The republican side of things though is a lot more murky. With so many candidates still running on that side of things, the field and the delegates are a lot more spread out. While Donald Trump may be getting all the attention, it doesn’t mean he will get all the votes. He hasn’t lost everything after just one caucus, but it’s a sign that this isn’t a lock for him either. Iowa is just one state, who knows what will happen in the other 49.
So, while some may take that this first real outing of the 2016 political season as a sign of things to come, I wouldn’t be so set and take this more as a possibility than a definite.
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